San Francisco’s March Market Report
As we head into the spring homebuying season, there’s a lot happening beneath the surface of the San Francisco market that I want to break down for you. We’re starting to feel a shift in momentum—interest rates are dropping, buyer activity is picking up, and sellers are watching closely to decide whether now is the right time to list.
Let’s dive into what the data is telling us and what that means for buyers and sellers this March.
Mortgage Rates Are (Finally) Dropping
Let’s start with the big news: mortgage rates are falling.
As of March 6, the average 30-year conforming loan rate dropped to 6.63%, continuing its seventh consecutive week of decline. This is the largest weekly drop we’ve seen since mid-September, and it's not a coincidence—it follows the Fed’s move to reduce its benchmark rate back in September 2024.
What does this mean for you? Lower rates = more purchasing power. And just in time, because spring is when the market tends to heat up. Buyers who had stepped to the sidelines last fall are starting to return, hoping to lock in better rates before prices rise again.
House Prices: Holding, But Likely to Climb
Median house prices in San Francisco have held relatively steady compared to last year. In February 2025, the 3-month rolling median house sales price was slightly down year-over-year, but that’s not unusual for this time of year. Historically, prices climb in spring and peak in late spring/early summer—so we may see an upward trend very soon.
Pro tip: if you're buying, acting before that spring surge could save you a lot.
Condo Market: Still Softer, but Showing Signs of Recovery
Condos have had a tougher run. The February 2025 median condo price was down 10% year-over-year, and overall condo appreciation has been slower compared to single-family homes. But here's the nuance: since 2023, condo prices have started to rise again—and in 2024, they were up 1% year-over-year.
The condo market tends to hit its low in mid-winter, then rebound in spring. We’re already seeing that pattern begin to play out. If you’re considering a condo purchase, this could be a smart entry point.
House Sales by Era: Where the Value Is
A quick note on home styles and value: While most San Francisco homes were built before 1960, newer construction homes (built since 2000)—though only 2% of sales—are commanding the highest prices and largest square footage. Homes built before 1920 still hold strong value too, reflecting their charm and historic appeal.
Here’s a snapshot of median sale prices by era:
Before 1920: $1.99M (avg. 1981 sq. ft.)
2000–2024: $2.925M (avg. 2700 sq. ft.)
The era of construction can impact not only aesthetics and layout but also appreciation potential.
$/Sq.Ft. Value Trends: Houses vs. Condos
Before the pandemic, condos typically had a higher $/sq.ft. value than houses. That’s flipped. Since 2022, houses have surpassed condos in price per square foot—a trend that’s still holding in early 2025.
This tells us that buyers are placing a premium on space, privacy, and flexibility—especially in a post-pandemic world where lifestyle needs have shifted.
Inventory Is Up (Just Slightly)
As of March 1, 2025, the number of active and coming-soon listings was slightly up year-over-year—a promising sign for buyers looking for more options. Of these listings:
26.5% were single-family homes
73.5% were condos, co-ops, TICs & townhouses
Inventory tends to rise into spring, so if you’re planning to sell, this is your window to prep and price strategically before competition grows.
Looking Ahead: What’s Next for SF Real Estate?
Spring 2025 is shaping up to be a more active and optimistic season than last year. Here's what I’m watching and advising my clients on right now:
Buyers: Lower rates and slightly softer prices = real opportunity. If you've been waiting, this could be your moment to act before competition picks up.
Sellers: With rates dropping and buyer activity heating up, now is the time to prep. If your home is in good condition and well-priced, demand is there.
As always, every neighborhood, property type, and price point moves differently—so if you want a customized strategy, let’s talk.
I’m here to help you navigate the market with clarity, confidence, and insider insight.
Warmly,
Marina
