San Francisco’s March Luxury Market Report
Spring is almost here, and the San Francisco luxury real estate market is moving in expected seasonal patterns. Luxury home sales rose in January before slowing in February, while high-end condo and co-op sales surged 60% year-over-year. Meanwhile, inventory levels remain tight in the single-family luxury segment, and broader economic factors—such as financial market volatility and mortgage rate fluctuations—are shaping buyer and seller behavior.
Let’s dive into the key insights for this month.
Luxury Home Sales: A Seasonal Dip, But What’s Next?
The luxury single-family home market ($5M+) followed a familiar seasonal pattern—activity increased in January after a slow December but dipped again in February.
January 2025 saw a boost in sales compared to December, but February experienced a drop.
Historically, luxury home sales rise sharply in spring, meaning we could see increased activity in the coming months.
This seasonal shift is critical for sellers—those considering listing should prepare now to take advantage of the expected spring momentum.
Luxury Condos & Co-ops: A Surprising Comeback
While luxury single-family home sales fluctuated, the high-end condo and co-op market saw a huge rebound. Sales in January and February were up 60% year-over-year, making this a standout segment.
Why the surge?
More buyers are seeing value in high-end condos and co-ops—especially in prime locations with top-tier amenities.
Pricing is competitive, making these properties more attractive compared to luxury single-family homes.
Cash buyers remain dominant, giving them an edge in securing premium units.
With this momentum carrying into March, expect continued competition in this segment. If you're a buyer, now might be a great time to act before the spring market heats up further.
Market Trends: Inventory, Pricing & Sales Activity
The broader San Francisco residential market reflects varying trends across price points :
Homes under $2M are moving quickly, selling within 35-40 days on average.
Luxury homes ($5M+) have an inventory of 3.7 months, meaning there is slightly more balance in the market.
High-end condos and TICs have a higher supply (3.8–3.9 months), giving buyers some negotiation power.
The $10M+ market has a much longer inventory supply at 13.6 months, reflecting fewer transactions.
For sellers, this means pricing strategy is key—buyers remain selective, and overpriced listings are likely to sit longer on the market.
Economic Factors: How the Market Is Reacting
Financial Market Volatility – The stock market had a strong run in early 2025 but has shown significant volatility in the past two weeks. For luxury buyers whose wealth is tied to financial markets, this can impact confidence and purchasing power.
Mortgage Rates Climbing Again – Despite some rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the 30-year conforming mortgage rate rose to 6.91%. For buyers needing financing, this adds a layer of cost to high-end transactions.
Luxury Market Inventory – Supply remains low for high-end single-family homes, which helps maintain pricing stability despite economic fluctuations.
Looking Ahead: What’s Next for SF Real Estate?
Expect an increase in luxury home sales as the spring market kicks into gear.
High-end condo and co-op sales could continue their strong momentum.
Buyers remain price-sensitive—sellers who price strategically will attract the most interest.
With spring bringing more activity and increased competition, both buyers and sellers need to be prepared. If you're considering a move, now is the time to strategize.
Let’s discuss how to navigate this evolving market and make the most of upcoming opportunities.
Until next time,
Marina
