San Francisco Real Estate Market Update: October 2024 Insights and Key Trends
October has brought some interesting developments to the San Francisco real estate market. With shifting mortgage rates, a surge in new listings, and evolving pricing trends, there’s a lot to unpack this month. Whether you're considering buying or selling, these insights could help you make informed decisions before the holiday season slows things down. Let’s dive into the latest numbers and what they mean for you!
Mortgage Rates: Volatility and Hope for Further Drops
In September, the Federal Reserve dropped its benchmark rate for the first time since 2020, providing a boost to the housing market. This move was followed by inflation reaching a three-and-a-half-year low, along with continued improvements in consumer confidence. Although rates dropped to their lowest point since early 2023, a strong jobs report in early October caused them to briefly spike again. Still, many experts are cautiously optimistic that rates may decline through the end of the year.
For buyers, lower rates could mean improved affordability, while sellers may see more potential buyers stepping off the sidelines.
Inventory on the Rise: New Listings Surge in San Francisco
The inventory of homes for sale in San Francisco jumped significantly on October 1 compared to earlier months, marking the highest monthly count of new listings in 2024. This rise in inventory is welcome news for buyers, as it provides a broader selection of homes across different property types. Currently, about 30% of these listings are single-family houses, while the remaining 70% include condos, co-ops, TICs, and townhomes.
This larger inventory gives buyers more choices, especially as the holiday slowdown approaches. Sellers should note that this may mean more competition, so strategic pricing could be essential to attract offers.
Condo Market Trends: Modest Year-Over-Year Appreciation
In terms of condo prices, we’re seeing a familiar seasonal trend: a peak in Q2 followed by a slight cool-down in Q3. However, San Francisco’s condo market still posted a 4% year-over-year gain in median sales price as of Q3 2024. This growth shows resilience in the condo market, but it’s worth remembering that price trends can vary by neighborhood.
For buyers, this price stability suggests that the condo market remains a solid investment in San Francisco, particularly in neighborhoods where demand remains strong. Sellers can feel confident in the overall stability of condo pricing this year.
Seasonal Surge in New Listings: Opportunities for Buyers
September’s seasonal surge in new listings is a predictable part of the San Francisco market cycle, with sellers typically listing properties before the holiday slowdown. This year, the number of new listings in September reached its highest point of 2024, giving buyers an excellent selection to choose from. However, it’s important to note that while this is a significant increase from earlier in the year, it’s still lower than the surge we saw in previous Septembers.
If you’re a buyer, now may be an ideal time to explore the market before the inevitable seasonal dip in listings during the winter months.
TICs vs. Condos: Understanding the Pricing Gap
TIC (Tenancy-in-Common) properties continue to be an appealing option for buyers looking for a more affordable entry point into the San Francisco market. TICs generally sell at about 20% below the median price of condos, but prices can fluctuate more due to lower transaction volumes. For many, TICs offer a practical alternative to condos, especially if you’re seeking affordability in a high-demand area.
Understanding the differences between TICs and condos is key to making a smart investment, so don’t hesitate to reach out if you’d like more details on this part of the market.
Single-Family Homes: Stable Prices Amid Seasonal Trends
Single-family home prices in San Francisco have remained relatively stable, following the usual seasonal trend of a slight Q3 dip after the spring peak. This October, median house prices are up about 2% year-over-year, indicating continued demand for single-family homes in the city.
This is encouraging news for sellers, as it suggests stable buyer interest and appreciation despite seasonal shifts. For buyers, this trend is a reminder that San Francisco’s single-family homes remain a valuable asset, even with some seasonal price softening.
Key Takeaways: October Market Opportunities for Buyers and Sellers
Overall, the October 2024 market offers a mix of opportunities and challenges, from increased inventory and a recent rate drop to typical seasonal pricing patterns. Here’s what this means for you:
For Buyers: Increased inventory and potential rate decreases could make this a great time to find the right property. With more choices available, you can take advantage of the broader selection before the winter slowdown.
For Sellers: Competition is increasing, so pricing strategically will be essential to stand out. With demand remaining steady, sellers who position their properties well are likely to see strong buyer interest.
As always, feel free to reach out if you want a more detailed look at these trends and how they might impact your personal real estate goals in San Francisco.
Stay tuned for next month’s report, and let’s keep a close watch on how the market shifts as we move toward the end of 2024!
