San Francisco’s January Luxury Market Report
Happy New Year! As we step into 2025, I’m here to give you an inside look at the latest trends shaping San Francisco’s luxury real estate market. This past year has been a fascinating one, with shifts in interest rates, buyer behavior, and market dynamics all influencing how homes in the $5M+ range performed. But before we dive into the big trends, let’s look at a couple of standout luxury sales that closed in just the first few weeks of the year:
350 Hill St, San Francisco, CA 94114
Sold on 01/17/25 for $5,800,000 (originally listed at $6,395,000)
Single-family home in Eureka Valley/Dolores Heights
4 bed, 3.5 bath, 3,400 sq. ft. (price per sq. ft.: $1,705.88)
Spent 93 days on the market
301 Mission St #GPHA, San Francisco, CA 94105
Sold on 01/16/25 for $9,000,000 (at asking price)
Condominium in Yerba Buena (2 bed, 2.5 bath, 5,009 sq. ft.)
Price per sq. ft.: $1,796.77
Went into contract immediately (0 days on market!)
These sales highlight the diversity of San Francisco’s luxury market—from a classic Dolores Heights single-family home to a sky-high, contemporary condominium in Yerba Buena. It’s also a great reminder that pricing, location, and timing are key factors driving success in today’s high-end market.
Luxury Home Sales Rebound in 2024
After a quieter 2023, luxury home sales made a strong comeback in 2024. There were 115 sales of $5M+ homes, up from 90 in the previous year, signaling renewed buyer demand. While still below the pandemic-driven highs of 2021, this growth reflects the resilience of San Francisco’s luxury market despite higher interest rates.
Even more exclusive, there were 17 sales of homes priced at $10M+, a number that has remained relatively stable since 2022. The uptick in high-end activity highlights the ongoing demand for prime properties, even as economic conditions fluctuate.
What’s Selling: A Snapshot of Price Segments
San Francisco’s residential market remains highly segmented, with most sales occurring at lower price points. Here’s a quick breakdown of 2024’s sales:
Under $1M: 27% of sales, with 82% of these being condos, co-ops, or TICs.
$1M–$1.5M: 29% of sales, making this the most active segment of the market.
$5M+: Represented just 3% of total sales, with .4% of all sales exceeding $10M.
Houses accounted for 48% of all sales, while condos made up 44%, illustrating the city’s diverse housing landscape.
Luxury Market Seasonality: Timing Is Everything
Luxury home sales continue to follow seasonal patterns, with spring and fall being the busiest times of the year. Higher-priced homes tend to see a strong rebound in fall, followed by a slowdown in the winter months.
This means that for sellers, early spring and September remain the ideal windows to list your home, while buyers may find fewer competing offers during the quieter mid-winter months.
The Wealth Effect: Financial Markets Drive Luxury Demand
The strength of the financial markets continues to play a major role in the demand for high-end real estate. Both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 posted significant gains in 2024, boosting household wealth—especially among affluent buyers.
This renewed confidence is reflected in the rebound of luxury home sales, with many buyers leveraging stock market gains to purchase high-end properties.
All-Cash Purchases at Record Highs
Another notable trend is the continued rise in all-cash purchases. In 2024, 28% of all homes in California were purchased without financing, the highest level since 2012.
In affluent markets like San Francisco, that percentage is likely even higher, as cash buyers remain a dominant force in the luxury sector. For sellers, this often means faster closings and fewer contingencies, making cash buyers particularly desirable.
What This Means for 2025
As we kick off the new year, here’s what I’m keeping an eye on:
Luxury Sales Momentum: Will the rebound in $5M+ sales continue into 2025, or will higher interest rates temper demand?
Inventory Levels: With inventory already tight, how will new listings shape the spring market?
Wealth Trends: As the financial markets fluctuate, so too will buyer confidence and purchasing power in the high-end market.
Whether you’re buying, selling, or just keeping an eye on the market, 2025 is already shaping up to be an exciting year for San Francisco real estate. If you’re curious about how these trends impact your plans, feel free to reach out—I’d love to help you navigate this dynamic market.
