San Francisco’s February Luxury Market Report
We’re already a month into 2025, and the San Francisco real estate market is off to an intriguing start. Luxury home sales are showing renewed energy, all-cash buyers are dominating the scene, and while inflation is slowly easing, it’s still keeping the Fed—and mortgage rates—on edge. This month, I’m diving into the key trends that are shaping SF real estate right now and what they could mean for the spring market ahead. Whether you're a buyer, seller, or just love following the market, here’s what’s happening behind the scenes.
Luxury Home Sales Make a Strong Comeback
The luxury market saw a solid rebound in 2024, with 115 homes priced at $5M+ closing—an uptick from the 90 sales in 2023. Though we’re not back to the pandemic boom of 2021, when nearly 200 luxury homes sold, this jump signals growing buyer confidence at the high end.
Ultra-luxury properties also held their ground, with 17 homes selling for $10M+, proving that serious buyers are still ready to make big moves in San Francisco’s most exclusive neighborhoods.
Where Are Buyers Spending Big?
It’s no surprise that iconic SF neighborhoods led the way in 2024, with jaw-dropping sales in some of the city’s most coveted areas. Here’s a look at where the biggest deals happened:
Presidio Heights – Median Price: $7,000,000 | High Sale: $24,000,000
Pacific Heights – Median Price: $5,500,000 | High Sale: $70,000,000 (off-market)
Sea Cliff – Median Price: $4,500,000 | High Sale: $26,000,000
Russian Hill – Median Price: $3,025,000 | High Sale: $22,100,000
What’s interesting is that even as mortgage rates fluctuated, buyers in these neighborhoods were willing to pay top dollar—especially for properties offering prime views, historic charm, or unique features.
Seasonality Still Reigns in the Luxury Market
If there’s one thing that’s consistent in SF real estate, it’s market seasonality. Last year followed a familiar rhythm: luxury home sales ($4M+) surged in the spring, slowed over the summer, then bounced back in the fall, with October 2024 marking one of the strongest months for high-end sales.
For sellers considering listing, spring and fall continue to offer the most buyer activity, while winter tends to be quieter—perfect for strategic planning.
Inflation Sticks Around & All-Cash Buyers Dominate
Economic trends are still playing a big role in the housing market. Inflation cooled from its peak but ticked back up to 2.7% in November 2024, higher than the Fed’s target of 2%. This has slowed expected rate cuts, leaving mortgage rates higher than many buyers had hoped.
But here’s the kicker: all-cash buyers aren’t phased. In 2024, a whopping 27% of California home sales were all-cash, and in SF’s luxury market, that percentage is likely even higher. These buyers are bypassing high borrowing costs entirely, giving them a serious edge—especially in competitive, high-end neighborhoods.
Looking Ahead: What’s Next for SF Real Estate?
Here’s what I’m watching as we head into the spring market:
Will Luxury Sales Keep Rising? — After a strong fall finish, will buyer momentum carry into 2025?
Mortgage Rates vs. Cash Buyers — Will we see rate relief, or will cash continue to dominate?
Neighborhoods to Watch — The usual suspects (Pacific Heights, Presidio Heights, Sea Cliff) remain hot, but up-and-coming areas may present new opportunities.
The San Francisco market is always shifting, and staying informed is the best way to stay ahead. Whether you’re looking to make a move this year or just want to chat about market trends, I’m always here to help.
Until next time,
Marina
